A stochastic forest fire growth model

被引：51
|
作者：
Boychuk, Den [2 ]
Braun, W. John [1 ]
Kulperger, Reg J. [1 ]
Krougly, Zinovi L. [1 ]
Stanford, David A. [1 ]
机构：
[1] Univ Western Ontario, Dept Stat & Actuarial Sci, London, ON N6A 5B9, Canada
[2] Ontario Minist Nat Resources, Sault Ste Marie, ON, Canada
来源：
ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECOLOGICAL STATISTICS | 2009年 / 16卷 / 02期
关键词：
Stochastic fire spread; Markov model; Lattice; Spatial model; Rate of spread; BEHAVIOR;
D O I：
10.1007/s10651-007-0079-z
中图分类号：
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号：
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要：
We consider a stochastic fire growth model, with the aim of predicting the behaviour of large forest fires. Such a model can describe not only average growth, but also the variability of the growth. Implementing such a model in a computing environment allows one to obtain probability contour plots, burn size distributions, and distributions of time to specified events. Such a model also allows the incorporation of a stochastic spotting mechanism.
引用
收藏
页码：133 / 151
页数：19
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