A Forecasting Method of Electricity Sales Considering the User Churn Rate in a Power Market Environment

被引：5
|
作者：
Qu, Zhaoyang [1 ]
Wang, Wanxin [1 ]
Qu, Nan [2 ]
Liu, Yuqing [3 ]
Lv, Hongbo [4 ]
Hu, Kewei [4 ]
Yu, Jianyou [4 ]
Gao, Manyang [1 ]
Song, Jiajun [1 ]
机构：
[1] Northeast Elect Power Univ, Sch Comp Sci, Jilin, Jilin, Peoples R China
[2] Jiangsu Power Co, Maintenaue Co, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
[3] Univ Bath, Dept Elect & Elect Engn, Bath, Avon, England
[4] State Grid Jilin Elect Power Supply Co, Songyuan, Jilin, Peoples R China
来源：
JOURNAL OF ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING & TECHNOLOGY | 2019年 / 14卷 / 04期
关键词：
Deep belief network; Churn rate of users; Electricity market; Electricity sales;
D O I：
10.1007/s42835-019-00215-9
中图分类号：
TM [电工技术]; TN [电子技术、通信技术];
学科分类号：
0808 ; 0809 ;
摘要：
In order to improve the accuracy of forecasts of the electricity sales of power sales companies, a depth forecast model of electricity sales based on the characteristics of the power market is proposed. First, based on survival analysis, the calculation method of the user churn rate in the electricity market is given, and the number of users at a certain moment in the future is predicted. Then, users' electricity consumption that calculated by the deep belief network and the predicted quantity of users are combined to design a forecast model of electricity sales. Finally, the model is solved utilizing the weighting algorithm of adaptive inertia. The analysis of the example shows that the proposed method achieves a significant improvement in the accuracy of power sales forecasting.
引用
收藏
页码：1585 / 1596
页数：12
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