Determining Production Number Using Monte Carlo Simulation Method

In a business, the businessmen or owner must have an ability in managing production process and perform a good marketing strategy. Some factors have to considered in designing production, besides the process and production design itself, it is production quantity. Generally, the owner of micro small medium enterprises, not regard about how many quantity of their production and make a mass production. While with the precisely design of product quantity, businessmen will be able to predict the possibility of profit they will get on the future. But, the fluctuation of total selling product make some business owner encounter problem in determining number of total production. Simulation may be a solution of this problem. Simulation is the imitation of the operation of a real-world process or system. There are many methodology well known in simulation, one of them is Monte Carlo. Monte Carlo is a probabilistic simulation model which give solution from a problem depend on a randomizing process. In this research, application will be developed with Matlab programming and Microsoft Excell used to saved the data.