The Measurement on the Decoupling Effect of Carbon Emissions in East China-Based on the research of provincial panel data

This paper uses the Tapio decoupling model to study the decoupling state of GDP and carbon dioxide emissions of "Six Provinces and One City" in East China. It uses the gray prediction model to give a short-term forecast about the GDP and carbon dioxide emissions of provinces and cities during the "13th Five-Year" Plan period. The research shows that the decoupling effect exists between the economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions in different provinces and cities of East China. The decoupling index is quite different from one region to another, among which Shanghai and Zhejiang perform best. The predictions suggest that during the "13th Five-Year", Shanghai and Zhejiang will maintain their strong decoupling state with their GDP's growing and carbon dioxide emissions' decreasing. The decoupling index of Fujian and Jiangsu is relatively lower, in the next five years, Fujian will turn into strong decoupling state with decreasing carbon dioxide emissions while carbon dioxide emissions in Jiangsu increases slightly with its average decoupling elasticity value as 0.028, and it's expected to achieve strong decoupling. The data of other provinces show their decoupling instability, and the weak decoupling will still play the dominant role during the "13th Five-Year" period.