FUTURE SCENARIOS OF TURKISH-ISRAELI RELATIONS UNDER AKP

The historical development of relations between Turkey and Israel, including the recent changes wrought by the AKP, show that Turkey's stance regarding Israel is driven by a mix of religious ideology and political expediency. In the early relationship between the two countries, although they experienced periods of stress, they managed to forge a strong relationship based on the mutual military and economic benefits of their relations. However, the rise of Islamist political parties in Turkey, including the NSP and the Welfare and Virtue Parties, directly harmed Turkey's relations with Israel while simultaneously strengthening Turkey's ties with Arab nations and Hamas. The current party in power, the AKP, is a continuation of Islamist parties that were previously banned, and the AKP's initial promises of reform were misleading, perhaps to reduce the chances of its being removed from power by the Turkish military, a strong defender of Turkey as a secular State. With Erdogan's 2014 presidential election victory, he has gained a chance to tighten both his and the AKP's grip on Turkish politics, an outcome that makes the future of Turkish-Israeli relations even more tenuous.