Analysis of Drought in the Maharashtra by Using the Standardized Precipitation Index

Drought is a one of the most destructive climate-related hazards, it is in general unstated as a prolonged deficiency of precipitation. Drought features are thus recognized as important factors in water resources planning and management. The purpose of this study is to detect the changes in drought frequency, persistence, and severity in the Maharashtra. Drought probabilities for different talukas of Maharashtra based on SPI methodology was computed for three time scales (Annual - 12 months scale, Southwest monsoon - 4 months scale, and Post monsoon - 3 months scale) for 326 talukas for which daily rainfall data for 30 years or more was used. The main benefit of the application of this index is its versatility, only rainfall data are required to deliver five major dimensions of a drought: duration, intensity, severity, magnitude, and frequency. It is interesting to note that highest probability (89%) is observed in Shirur Anantpal and Udgir taluka of Latur district followed by Loha taluka in Nanded district and Kamptee taluka in Nagpur (89%). Though they are situated in a semi-arid climatic region, near normal conditions are being expected over these talukas. In talukas from coastal Kokan region where annual rainfall is higher, the occurrence of near normal condition is less. Probability of 70 and above has been considered generally as a benchmark for making decisions on agricultural operations, and this is observed in 128 talukas out of 328 talukas across the state for near normal condition. The Lowest probability for normal conditions is noted in Murtijapur talukas in Akola district (50%) followed by Sangrampur in Buldhana district (53%) and Digras in Yavatmal district (54%). The Highest probability of occurrence for moderately dry condition is seen in Manora in Washim district and Parseoni Nagpur district (21%) followed by 20 percent probability in Ralegaon in Yavatmal district and Chopda in Jalgaon district. It can be inferred that 2 out of 10 years moderate dry conditions can be expected in the above talukas. The probability of occurrence of severe and extremely dry conditions is almost nil in 86 and 139 talukas, respectively. The Highest probability (13%) under severe dry category has been noted in 2 talukas and extremely dry conditions may prevail with a 21% probability in Mauda taluka of Nagpur district.