Housing Price, Industrial Upgrading, and Total Factor Productivity: PVAR Model Based on Chinese Provincial Panel Data

The growth of Chinese economy is shifting from "speed" to "quality." The quality of economic growth is characterized by an increase in industrial structure and an increase in total factor productivity (TFP), but experience has shown that housing price increases will inhibit industrial upgrading to a certain extent and may lead to a decline in TFP. However, there are also theoretical models that, along with the industrial structure change and the growth of TFP in the region, the demand for housing will increase under limited supply conditions, which in turn will promote the increase in real estate prices. This study mainly explores the dynamic mechanism and impact mechanism between housing prices and industrial upgrading and TFP, to contribute to the organic integration of housing regulation and industrial policies, and to contribute to the high-quality development of the Chinese economy.