Modified SEIR model for prediction of COVID-19 outbreak trend in India with effectiveness of preventive care

被引：4

作者：

Kumar, Sanjay ^{[1
]}

Kumar, Vineet ^{[2
]}

Awasthi, Uday ^{[3
]}

Vatsal, Manu ^{[4
]}

Singh, Sanjay Kumar ^{[5
]}

机构：

[1] Natl Inst Technol, Dept Elect Engn, Jalandhar 144011, Punjab, India

[2] Natl Inst Technol, Dept Elect Engn, Hamirpur 177005, Himachal Prades, India

[3] Maharishi Markandeshwar Univ, Dept Anaesthesiol, Med Coll, Solan 173229, Himachal Prades, India

[4] Natl Inst Technol, Dept Chem, Hamirpur 177005, Himachal Prades, India

[5] Amity Univ, Dept Elect Engn, Jaipur 303002, Rajasthan, India

来源：

JOURNAL OF STATISTICS AND MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS | 2021年 / 24卷 / 01期

关键词：

COVID-19; Epidemic; Prediction; SEIR; Model; Ode45; solver;

D O I：

10.1080/09720510.2020.1833463

中图分类号：

O21 [概率论与数理统计]; C8 [统计学];

学科分类号：

020208 ; 070103 ; 0714 ;

摘要：

The outbreak of COVID 19 among community is a threat to society. The world is still looking for its vaccine in the market due to rapid growth in positive cases. The shutdown of essential service in global market due to COVID-19 has produced a threat to economic security and society growth. In present study, SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious and Recovered) model using ode45 solver has been developed for prediction of number of COVID-19 cases that could possibly be there in India in next 227 days. The impact of COVID-19 cases with and without and preventive care has been predicted with proposed model. The effect of reproductive number (R) in respect to preventive care has also been analysed.

引用

页码：135 / 145

页数：11

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