Limits of Predictability in Human Mobility

被引：2217

作者：

Song, Chaoming ^{[1
,2
,3
,4
,5
]}

Qu, Zehui ^{[1
,2
,3
,4
,5
,6
]}

Blumm, Nicholas ^{[1
,2
,3
,4
,5
]}

Barabasi, Albert-Laszlo ^{[1
,2
,3
,4
,5
]}

机构：

[1] Northeastern Univ, Ctr Complex Network Res, Dept Phys, Boston, MA 02115 USA

[2] Northeastern Univ, Ctr Complex Network Res, Dept Biol, Boston, MA 02115 USA

[3] Northeastern Univ, Ctr Complex Network Res, Dept Comp Sci, Boston, MA 02115 USA

[4] Dana Farber Canc Inst, Ctr Canc Syst Biol, Boston, MA 02115 USA

[5] Harvard Univ, Sch Med, Dept Med, Boston, MA 02115 USA

[6] Univ Elect Sci & Technol China, Sch Engn & Comp Sci, Chengdu 610054, Peoples R China

来源：

SCIENCE | 2010年 / 327卷 / 5968期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

D O I：

10.1126/science.1177170

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

A range of applications, from predicting the spread of human and electronic viruses to city planning and resource management in mobile communications, depend on our ability to foresee the whereabouts and mobility of individuals, raising a fundamental question: To what degree is human behavior predictable? Here we explore the limits of predictability in human dynamics by studying the mobility patterns of anonymized mobile phone users. By measuring the entropy of each individual's trajectory, we find a 93% potential predictability in user mobility across the whole user base. Despite the significant differences in the travel patterns, we find a remarkable lack of variability in predictability, which is largely independent of the distance users cover on a regular basis.

引用

页码：1018 / 1021

页数：4

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