A Novel Approach for Probabilistic Hurricane Resiliency Assessment of an Active Distribution System Using Point Estimate Method

The growing number of weather-related outages in power systems highlights the role of resilience of electrical grid infrastructures. Quantifying the resiliency metric is necessary in a power system to evaluate the possible consequences of High Impact-Low Probability (HILP) events. This paper proposed a novel method to calculate a probabilistic time-dependent expected resilience metric which is obtained from combined discrete and continuous probability distribution functions. Considering uncertainties related to the load consumption and intermittent generation of Photovoltaic (PV) systems as input variables, Point Estimate Method (PEM) is applied in order to handle stochastic inherent of them and the fulfillment of the proposed probabilistic method is compared with Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) technique. This paper analyzes the impacts of hurricane events in a Conventional Distribution System (CDS) and compares it with an Active Distribution System (ADS) using an expected resilience metric. Graph theory concept is used to evaluate restoration feasibility of costumers. The proposed Probabilistic Hurricane Resiliency Assessment (PHRA) is tested on the IEEE 37-node.