A novel evaluation method for urban infrastructures carrying capacity

Urban infrastructures include a wide range of functional infrastructures, such as water-supply infrastructures, gas-supply infrastructures, and transportation infrastructures etc. Nevertheless, it appears that the carrying capacity of these functional urban infrastructures is not properly evaluated during rampant urban development process, which has induced multiple urban symptoms worldwide. Given the critical challenge, this study aims to develop an applicable and effective method to evaluate Urban Infrastructures Carrying Capacity (UICC), which can help understand UICC status thus UICC can be effectively utilized and improved. The development of UICC evaluation model adopts Load-Carrier Model, Mean-Variance Analysis Method and Coupling Coordination Degree Model jointly. A Chinese-context based demonstration of UICC model is conducted for the period of 2008 to 2017. The research findings reveal that: An overall improvement of UICC performance has been achieved by the surveyed cities, whilst the imbalance in UICC performance is significant among cities in China. The average UICC performance among Chinese cities is characterized with southern polarization. UICC performance of a certain city also evolves between different years, where four types of UICC evolution pattern present, including gradually increasing, stable, fluctuating, and increasing-stable. Policy implications and takeaway for practices are discussed and suggested by drawing on the research findings.