North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: a review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends

被引：236

作者：

Grotjahn, Richard ^{[1
]}

Black, Robert ^{[2
]}

Leung, Ruby ^{[3
]}

Wehner, Michael F. ^{[4
]}

Barlow, Mathew ^{[5
]}

Bosilovich, Mike ^{[6
]}

Gershunov, Alexander ^{[7
]}

Gutowski, William J., Jr. ^{[8
]}

Gyakum, John R. ^{[9
]}

Katz, Richard W. ^{[10
]}

Lee, Yun-Young ^{[1
]}

Lim, Young-Kwon ^{[11
]}

Prabhat ^{[4
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Calif Davis, Atmospher Sci Program, Dept LAWR, One Shields Ave, Davis, CA 95616 USA

[2] Georgia Inst Technol, Sch Earth & Atmospher Sci, 311 Ferst Dr, Atlanta, GA 30332 USA

[3] Pacific NW Natl Lab, Richland, WA 99352 USA

[4] Univ Calif Berkeley, Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA

[5] Univ Massachusetts Lowell, Lowell, MA 01854 USA

[6] NASA, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Global Modeling & Assimilat Off, Greenbelt, MD 20771 USA

[7] Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, Climate Atmospher Sci & Phys Oceanog CASPO Div, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA

[8] Iowa State Univ, Dept Geol & Atmospher Sci, Ames, IA 50011 USA

[9] McGill Univ, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Montreal, PQ H3A 0B9, Canada

[10] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Inst Math Appl Geosci, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA

[11] NASA, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Global Modeling & Assimilat Off, Goddard Earth Sci Technol & Res IM Syst Grp, 8800 Greenbelt Rd, Greenbelt, MD 20771 USA

来源：

CLIMATE DYNAMICS | 2016年 / 46卷 / 3-4期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会; 美国食品与农业研究所; 加拿大自然科学与工程研究理事会;

关键词：

Large scale meteorological patterns for temperature extremes; Heat waves; Hot spells; Cold air outbreaks; Cold spells; Statistics of temperature extremes; Dynamics of heat waves; Dynamics of cold air outbreaks; Dynamical modeling of temperature extremes; Statistical modeling of extremes; Trends in temperature extremes; COLD-AIR OUTBREAKS; LOW-FREQUENCY VARIABILITY; SUMMER HEAT-WAVE; ARCTIC SEA-ICE; CLIMATE-CHANGE; UNITED-STATES; ATMOSPHERIC BLOCKING; HOT SPELLS; PRECIPITATION; WINTER;

D O I：

10.1007/s00382-015-2638-6

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

The objective of this paper is to review statistical methods, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends related to temperature extremes, with a focus upon extreme events of short duration that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). The statistics, dynamics, and modeling sections of this paper are written to be autonomous and so can be read separately. Methods to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperature events are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplement more straightforward analyses. Various LSMPs, ranging from synoptic to planetary scale structures, are associated with extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the synoptics and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the associated LSMPs is incomplete. Systematic studies of: the physics of LSMP life cycles, comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages, and LSMP properties are needed. Generally, climate models capture observed properties of heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreak frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Modeling studies have identified the impact of large-scale circulation anomalies and land-atmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs to more specifically understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated. The paper concludes with unresolved issues and research questions.

引用

页码：1151 / 1184

页数：34