A mathematical model for the dynamics and MCMC analysis of tomato bacterial wilt disease

被引：5

作者：

Remo, Flavia ^{[1
]}

Luboobi, Livingstone S. ^{[2
]}

Mabalawata, Isambi Sailon ^{[3
]}

Nannyonga, Betty K. ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Friedrich Schiller Univ Jena, Inst Math, Ernst Abbe Pl 2, D-07743 Jena, Germany

[2] Makerere Univ, Dept Math, POB 7062, Kampala, Uganda

[3] African Inst Math Sci AIMS Tanzania, POB 176, Bagamoyo, Coastal Region, Tanzania

来源：

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMATHEMATICS | 2018年 / 11卷 / 01期

关键词：

TBWD; stability analysis; sensitivity analysis; MCMC; controls; METROPOLIS ALGORITHM; BAYESIAN-APPROACH; ADAPTIVE MCMC; HIV;

D O I：

10.1142/S1793524518500018

中图分类号：

Q [生物科学];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

In this paper, we formulate and analyze a mathematical model to investigate the transmission dynamics of tomato bacterial wilt disease (TBWD) in Mukono district, Uganda. We derive the basic reproduction number R-0 and prove the existence of a diseasefree equilibrium point which is globally stable if R-0 < 1 and an endemic equilibrium which exists if R-0 > 1. Model parameters are estimated using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods and robustness tested. The model parameters were observed to be identifiable. Numerical simulations show that soil solarization and sensitization of farmers can help to eliminate the disease in Uganda. A modified tomato bacterial wilt model with control terms is formulated.

引用

页数：22

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