A Probabilistic Approach to Conditional Reasoning Development

How likely is the glass to break, given that it is heated? The present study asks questions such as this with or without the premise if the glass is heated, it breaks. A reduced problem (question without premise) measures the statistical dependency (conditional probability) of an event to occur, given that another has occurred. Such statistical dependency represents knowledge-based reasoning (inferring from glass heated to its breaking) and is a component of the response to the complete problem (question with premise). The complete problems therefore measure not only knowledge-based reasoning in terms of statistical dependencies (inductive component) but assumption-based reasoning (deductive component). Two experiments revealed: a) Knowledge-based reasoning continues to develop and attains adult levels at 7th grade for the problems tested, and b) assumption-based reasoning (deductive component) is reliable only for secondary school students (7th graders).