Probabilistic Production Simulation of Multi-Energy System and Practice in Transnational Energy System

Probabilistic production simulation is a powerful tool for power system planning and operation analysis. With the development of multi-energy systems, it has become an important way for energy supply to meet various types of loads (electrical, heating, cooling, etc.) from various types of power sources (thermal power, renewable energy, etc.). To adapt to this development trend, this paper extends the framework of probabilistic production simulation for single or interconnected multi-energy system. And then the framework is tested on self-built system and a real transnational energy system, the results demonstrate the effectiveness of the framework in electric energy arrangement and reliability evaluation.