Analysis of time-dependent failure rate and probability of nuclear component

被引：1
|
作者：
Guo, Haikuan [1 ,2 ]
Zhao, Xinwen [1 ]
Chen, Wenzhen [1 ]
机构：
[1] Naval Univ Engn, Dept Nucl Energy Sci & Engn, Wuhan 430033, Hubei, Peoples R China
[2] 92609th PLA, Beijing 100077, Peoples R China
来源：
ANNALS OF NUCLEAR ENERGY | 2018年 / 122卷
关键词：
Failure rate; Failure probability; Probabilistic safety assessment; Generalized linear model; Bayes;
D O I：
10.1016/j.anucene.2018.08.021
中图分类号：
TL [原子能技术]; O571 [原子核物理学];
学科分类号：
0827 ; 082701 ;
摘要：
Reliability data of nuclear component are the input parameter and important to the nuclear power plant probabilistic safety assessment. If the failure is weariness in origin, the failure rate and probability will be not constant and have a time trend. Failure rate and probability have been proved to be increasing with time by reliability mathematics. The generalized linear model is built for Poisson and Binomial distribution and applied to study the time-dependent failure rate and probability of nuclear component. The model is proved to be reasonable by the qualitative graph and Bayesian chi-square statistic methods, which can predict the real time trend of nuclear component failure rate and probability correctly. Only analyzing the time dependent failure rate and probability of nuclear component, we will build more accurate general reliability data to analyze the uncertainty of system reliability. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码：137 / 145
页数：9
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