Improving the In-Hospital Mortality Prediction of Diabetes ICU Patients Using a Process Mining/Deep Learning Architecture

Diabetes intensive care unit (ICU) patients are at increased risk of complications leading to in-hospital mortality. Assessing the likelihood of death is a challenging and time-consuming task due to a large number of influencing factors. Healthcare providers are interested in the detection of ICU patients at higher risk, such that risk factors can possibly be mitigated. While such severity scoring methods exist, they are commonly based on a snapshot of the health conditions of a patient during the ICU stay and do not specifically consider a patient's prior medical history. In this paper, a process mining/deep learning architecture is proposed to improve established severity scoring methods by incorporating the medical history of diabetes patients. First, health records of past hospital encounters are converted to event logs suitable for process mining. The event logs are then used to discover a process model that describes the past hospital encounters of patients. An adaptation of Decay Replay Mining is proposed to combine medical and demographic information with established severity scores to predict the in-hospital mortality of diabetes ICU patients. Significant performance improvements are demonstrated compared to established risk severity scoring methods and machine learning approaches using the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III dataset.