Innovation Topologies: Modelling Knowledge Diffusion with Cellular Automaton

As an extract of an ongoing cooperative project of Wroclaw University of Technology and TU Dresden, the paper explores the emergence of innovation and asks whether innovation can be to any extent predicted spatially. Cellular Automata (CA) have been chosen for this study as the spatial modelling tool. The goal is to understand the nature of the spread of innovations in a limited space, and to equip the CA with information needed to calibrate it to actual, real-world processes. The CA spaces are formed by cells with specific characteristics concerning their absorptivity, or attractiveness for innovators. In addition, information is given how the agents behave and act depending on the nature of their innovation. Purpose - The final goal of the research is to examine the possibilities of forecasting the appearance of innovations with the use of spatial, architectural, and economic data. Design/methodology/approach - Cellular automata were created and tested. As input, categorised data of selected entities were gathered and organised into a matrix. The CA were calibrated in order to recreate the historical processes described in the antecedent research. Originality/value - The assumption of the study is that well-calibrated CA can model real-world knowledge diffusion processes with acceptable precision. This methodology allows for credible - numerical and spatial - estimation of the likelihood of the appearance of innovation inside a specified branch of economy and inside a specified area. Practical implications -As a starting point for extended research, the study wants to establish a scientific basis for knowledge and innovation-based spatial planning, having implications for economic development, urban management, and policy-making.