Alcohol abuse and dependence criteria as predictors of a chronic course of alcohol use disorders in the general population

Aims: To investigate whether DSM-IV abuse and dependence criteria and the ICD-10 criterion for craving differentially predict a chronic course of alcohol use disorders (AUD) in the general population. Methods: Data were derived from the Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study, a large representative sample of the general Dutch population with a baseline and a 1- and 3-year follow-up assessment. In the present study, a cohort of subjects with a DSM-IV AUD diagnosis at baseline was followed (n = 382). Diagnostic criteria of AUD according to DSM-IV and ICD-10 were assessed using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). Results: In our cohort of subjects with an AUD diagnosis at baseline, the presence of all dependence criteria, except tolerance, significantly increased the risk for dependence at 1 and 3 years follow-up. Abuse criteria displayed much lower and often non-significant risks for dependence at follow-up, with the exception of the criterion 'legal problems'. The ICD-10 criterion 'craving' had the highest relative risk (RR) of all criteria for dependence at 1 year (RR = 12.4, 95% CI = 5.5-27.8) and 3 years follow-up (RR = 12.9, 95% CI = 4.4-37.7). Conclusion: With the exception of tolerance, all DSM-IV dependence criteria are useful in predicting the course of AUD in the general population.