We study whether default options are mispriced in equity values by employing a structural equity valuation model that explicitly takes into account the value of the option to default (or abandon the firm) and uses firm-specific inputs. We implement our model on the entire cross section of stocks and identify both over- and underpriced equities. An investment strategy that buys undervalued stocks and shorts overvalued stocks generates an annual four-factor alpha of about 11% for U.S. stocks. The model's performance is stronger for stocks with a higher value of the default option, such as distressed or highly volatile stocks.
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Fed Reserve Bank New York, 33 Liberty St, New York, NY 10045 USAFed Reserve Bank New York, 33 Liberty St, New York, NY 10045 USA
Fuster, Andreas
Willen, Paul S.
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Fed Reserve Bank Boston, 600 Atlantic Ave, Boston, MA 02210 USA
NBER, Cambridge, MA 02138 USAFed Reserve Bank New York, 33 Liberty St, New York, NY 10045 USA
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European Investment Bank EIB, Model Validat Div, Kirchberg, LuxembourgKahramanmaras Sutcu Imam Univ, Fac Sci & Letter, TR-46050 Kahramanmaras, Turkey
Hekimoglu, A. Alper
Selcuk-Kestel, A. Sevtap
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Middle East Tech Univ, Inst Appl Math, METU, TR-6800 Ankara, TurkeyKahramanmaras Sutcu Imam Univ, Fac Sci & Letter, TR-46050 Kahramanmaras, Turkey
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Univ Int Business & Econ, Sch Int Trade & Econ, Beijing 100029, Peoples R ChinaUniv Int Business & Econ, Sch Int Trade & Econ, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China