Recent trends in mortality due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in Mexico, 1980-2002

Background. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is characterized by airflow limitation that is not fully reversible. Changes in classification have a major impact on reported mortality rates. Methods. Between 1980 and 2002, 230,463 COPD cases were studied (age group 35-94 years); 134,579 men; 95,884 women. Results. The crude mortality rate varied from 37 (1980) to 61 per 100,000 men (2002), (increase: 65%). The crude mortality rate for females increased from 27 (1980) to 43 deaths per 100,000 women (2002), (increase: 56%). The trends of the absolute values by birth year and age groups are higher as age increases. As age of death comes down and the birth cohort increases, the absolute values decrease. The Mexican states located in the northern and central areas present a higher risk for dying. There is an increment coefficient of 93 cases per increment year in males (age group 35-74), and 61 cases per increment year in females (age group 35-74 years). For the age group 35-94 years, the annual increase for males is 288 cases. These results were statistically significant, and the regression model was validated by residual analysis. Conclusions. The oldest cohorts of the studied population showed the highest COPD mortality absolute values. The geographic risk of dying from COPD is concentrated in two regions: a) the three Mexican states of higher economic income at the northern frontier to the U.S. and b) those Mexican states surrounding the main producer of tobacco (Nayarit). (c) 2005 IMSS. Published by Elsevier Inc.