Strategic Targeting: The Islamic State and Use of Violence in Iraq and Syria

What explains the specific location of Islamic State attacks in Syria and Iraq? We consider how both ethnic and economic factors shape the group's decision-making about where to attack. We explore these competing motivations using spatial analysis of the Islamic State's individual acts of violence from 2013-2017. We find that both areas with ethnic heterogeneity and valuable economic rents are associated with more individual Islamic State violent events. By examing the micro-foundations of the Islamic State's conflict decisions, we provide further nuance to understanding the strategic logic of rebel groups during wartime.