Density-dependent demographic responses of a semelparous plant to natural variation in seed rain

The link between reproductive and vegetative ecology of flowering plants is rarely explored, despite its importance for understanding population processes and fitness. This link can be studied by using experimental or natural variation in seed input to the soil to assess how reproductive success affects vital rates of offspring. We previously reported for Ipomopsis aggregata that per-seed probability of germinating is insensitive to density of seeds sown into plots, whereas per capita flower production among adults that grow from the seedlings declines in nonlinear fashion with density. Here we describe a parallel non-experimental study. We related seedling emergence to estimated natural seed input ('seed rain') in three populations across ten summers and monitored seedlings that emerged in the first two summers throughout their life histories. Seedling emergence in 1996 was linearly related to seed rain from plants that flowered in 1995. This density independent seed-to-seedling transition recurred over the next nine summers, but the slope varied with springtime precipitation. Total numbers of 1996 seedlings that survived to flower and numbers of flowers they produced increased linearly with seed rain in one population, but did not vary detectably in the other two, consistent with negative density dependence. In consequence lambda (the dominant eigenvalue of a population projection matrix) decreased from high values at low densities of seed rain to a relatively constant low value with greater seed rain. We also detected density dependence in the 1995 seedling cohort in survival and flower production. The similarity of results from natural and experimental studies supports a conclusion of nonlinear density dependence and shows that characterizing it requires the full life history. For this plant species and others, studies of pollination and fecundity alone may not suffice to draw conclusions about population change or fitness.