Neighbourhood places, collective efficacy and crime: A longitudinal perspective

Neighbourhood places like shops, cafes and parks support a variety of social interactions ranging from the ephemeral to the intimate. Repeated interactions at neighbourhood places over time lay the foundation for the development of social cohesion and collective efficacy. In this study, we examine the proposition that changes in the presence or arrangement of neighbourhood places can destabilise social cohesion and collective efficacy, which has implications for crime. Using spatially integrated crime, social survey and parcel-level land-use classification data, we estimate mixed effects panel models predicting changes in theft and nuisance crimes across 147 Australian neighbourhoods. The findings are consistent with neighbourhood social control and crime opportunity theories. Neighbourhood development - indicated by fewer vacant properties and fewer industrial and agricultural sites - is associated with higher collective efficacy and less crime over time. Conversely, introducing more restaurants, transit stations and cinemas is associated with higher theft and nuisance over time regardless of neighbourhood collective efficacy. We argue that the addition of socially conducive places can leave neighbourhoods vulnerable to crime until new patterns of sociability emerge and collective efficacy develops.