Describing Snow Instability by Failure Initiation, Crack Propagation, and Slab Tensile Support

Snow instability is a generic term describing the propensity of a snow slope to avalanche. In need of a concise mechanics-based concept we suggest a framework based on failure initiation, crack propagation, and slab tensile support. Following these three steps we modeled three metrics from mechanical data, which we derived from snow micropenetrometer signals. Verifying the metrics with field measurements confirmed that slab thickness and weak layer strength typically influence failure initiation, elastic modulus and weak layer fracture energy largely control crack propagation, and slab thickness and tensile strength provide the required tensile support. For all three metrics, considering slab layering was essential. Validation with signs of instability showed that the most accurate model includes all three steps - suggesting that snow instability can be described by failure initiation, crack propagation, and slab tensile support. Further validation is needed to assess the framework's potential for operational use.