Analysis of Water Resource Situation of the Tarim River Basin and the System Evolution under the Changing Environment

The water resource of the Tarim River Basin is supplied by various water sources such as precipitation, melt water of glacier and snow and it is sensitive to climatic change. The water resource system is greatly unstable and vulnerable, and its evolution law is complicated. Due to the double influence of climate change and human activities, the managerial risk and uncertainty of water resource in the Tarim River Basin are increased severely. Based on hydrological and meteorological materials of hydrological station and watershed weather station controlled in the main exits of three origins in the Tarim River Basin from 1962 to 2007, together with the materials of accumulation of snow from 2000 to 2011, its runoff changing process and its long-term tendency are analyzed by means of the linear tendency estimation method. Then, the multi-COPULA joint distribution model between meteorological and hydrological variables is established. The evolutionary driving force of water resource systems in different periods and its change of dependent measure is analyzed based on change-point detection of dependent structure and the result of the correlative degree in the tail. Temporal and spatial variation of evolution is further investigated to provide a reliable basis for regional management of water resource.