Uncertainty in 2-D hydraulic modeling: a case study of an experiment in transcritical flow

Change in flow regime from subcritical to supercritical flow or opposite can be met during a dam break flow propagation but also during floods in urban areas, particularly near crossroads. Detailed laboratory measurements of flow discharge distribution and flow depths are carried out for transcritical dividing flows in a 90 sharp-edged, rectangular junction formed by horizontal open-channels of equal width. These measurements are used to assess the uncertainty of numerical predictions obtained using a two-dimensional (2-D) depth-averaged model. A sensitivity analysis to four parameters, i.e., space step, friction coefficient, diffusion coefficient, and downstream boundary condition, is carried out. For the water depths in the vicinity of the intersection, uncertainty linked to the calibration of the four aforementioned parameters can be higher than 50% because of the difficulty in representing the location and amplitude of the hydraulic jumps while, for the flow ratio between the downstream branches, uncertainty is limited to 10%.