Predicting currency crises - Evidence from two transition economies

被引：3

作者：

Karfakis, C ^{[1
]}

Moschos, D ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Athens, GR-10679 Athens, Greece

来源：

EMERGING MARKETS FINANCE AND TRADE | 2004年 / 40卷 / 01期

关键词：

currency crises; probit analysis; transition economies;

D O I：

10.1080/1540496X.2004.11052562

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

This paper investigates the role of fundamentals in the speculative episodes experienced by the Czech Republic and Poland during the 1990s. The evidence suggests that the currency crises of the two Central and Eastern European countries are significantly related to macroeconomic fundamentals. The analysis has implications for the design of macroeconomic policies in transition economies and for the sustainability of an exchange rate commitment.

引用

页码：95 / 103

页数：9

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