Global Warming and Possible Changes in the Recurrences of Grain Crops Anomalies

The recurrence of droughts caused by global warming for the period 2011-2050 in the Russian northwest region and some European countries is discussed in this paper. The selected regions include: Petersburg, Novgorod, Pskov and Kaliningrad oblasts, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, part of Great Britain, Finland and Ireland. Winter and summer wheat yields anomalies were used. To forecast yield anomalies recurrences the ensemble approach technique was used when yield was approximated by two components agrotechnological and weather-related. Following the ECHAM5 MPI-OM climatic scenario, the negative yield anomaly, especially will be increasing especially for winter wheat during 2010-2030. After 2030, the recurrence of the negative anomalies will decrease. The difference between winter and spring wheat will be negligible.