DEVELOPMENT AND VALIDATION OF A RESIDENTIAL SECTOR ENERGY END-USE PREDICTION MODEL TO ESTIMATE RESIDENTIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN JAPAN

We developed a "data preparation model" to complement the database for the estimation of energy consumption in the Japanese residential sector from 1990 to 2010. In particular, we developed a "stock model" for water heaters to estimate the diffusion of high-efficiency water heaters. Energy consumption is estimated by a "residential sector energy end-use prediction model" which was developed originally by our research group. In addition, we validated the results and analyzed the dominant factors related to energy consumption in the residential sector. The simulated total energy consumption was within 17% of the actual energy supply in 1990 and 2000, while the result in 2010 was underestimated by 24-35%. The most important factor for reducing energy consumption was found to be an improvement in appliance efficiency.