Alternative paths for the growth of e-commerce

Electronic commerce promises to be the drive behind a new wave of economic growth. Yet, the actual achievement of the prospected benefits and their allocation will depend on the features of the business models driving the diffusion of the new sales channel. The paper rejects the existence of a deterministic relation between e-commerce technological features and the structure of future electronic markets. Accordingly, alternative growth paths are explored and different scenarios are sketched depending upon the prevailing nature of the economic relations among the involved actors. For each scenario, the paper discusses the implications in terms of e-commerce diffusion speed and benefits allocation. The analysis of possible growth paths reveal that public intervention plays a non-negligible role in shaping the business model(s) that will eventually emerge, hence the impact of e-commerce on social welfare. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.