The inefficiency of the mean analyst forecast as a summary forecast of earnings

被引：26
|
作者：
Kim, O [1 ]
Lim, SC
Shaw, KW
机构：
[1] Univ Maryland, College Pk, MD 20742 USA
[2] Texas Christian Univ, Ft Worth, TX 76129 USA
来源：
JOURNAL OF ACCOUNTING RESEARCH | 2001年 / 39卷 / 02期
关键词：
D O I：
10.1111/1475-679X.00015
中图分类号：
F8 [财政、金融];
学科分类号：
0202 ;
摘要：
We show analytically that mean analyst forecasts inefficiently aggregate information by assigning too much weight to analysts' common information relative to their private information when used as a summary forecast measure of forthcoming earnings. A more precise summary forecast of earnings than the current mean forecast is the current mean forecast plus a positive multiple of the change in the mean forecast.
引用
收藏
页码：329 / 335
页数：7
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