Prediction of Concrete Failure Time Based on Statistical Properties of Compressive Strength

Since the heterogeneity of the cement-based material contributes to a random spatial distribution of compressive strength, a reliability analysis based on the compressive strength of concrete is fundamental to carry out structural safety assessment. By analyzing 10,317 datapoints on compressive strength of concrete, a time-varying reliability evaluation based on the third-moment (TM) method was proposed to predict the service life of concrete. Unlike the second-moment (SM) method, skewness is taken into account in the TM; thus, the calculated result of concrete failure time based on the TM is more accurate. In this paper, the errors of the calculated results using time-varying reliability evaluation are within 3%, as shown by Monte Carlo (MC) simulation. In addition, the proposed model (aiming to calculate the equivalent design compressive strength) verifies the concrete failure time calculated by time-varying reliability. According to the results, concrete failure times calculated by these two models are in good agreement. Overall, based on the simple and effective methodology adopted in this paper, it is feasible to develop time-varying reliability based on other factors that might also lead to concrete failure, such as carbonation-induced corrosion, cracking, or deflection of the concrete.