Pathways and Dead Ends of Pastoral Development among the Afar and Karrayu in Ethiopia

The article highlights heterogeneous patterns of pastoral development in Ethiopia. The key question is to what extent current changes may be interpreted as 'sustainable development pathways' in which resilience of livelihoods and natural resource bases are maintained under conditions of stress, or rather as unsustainable 'dead ends', characterised by the inability of pastoral groups to cope with and adapt to externally induced changes. The article argues that the answer depends largely on the state's commitment to pastoral development. Empirical evidence from two case studies among Afar and Karrayu clans in the eastern lowlands of Ethiopia suggests that in the past, external interventions by government agencies and large-scale irrigation schemes have been detrimental to pastoral livelihoods. It is concluded that the future of pastoralism in Ethiopia will be determined by divergent but partly complimentary development pathways, and by attempts to give pastoralists a voice in decision-making over their own development.