Equilibrium sorting and moral hazard in residential energy contracts

This paper studies tenant behavior in rental housing when the landlord pays for heating. I develop a model in which renters have heterogeneous preferences for home size and indoor temperature. When energy is costly, renters choose smaller apartments and turn down the heat -or sort into apartments with landlord-pay energy bills. I estimate the model using exogenous variation in energy prices and use a machine-learning algorithm to explore preference heterogeneity. Surprisingly, I find that renters who prefer hotter temperatures do not systematically choose landlord-pay units, though I am unable to rule out sorting on preferences for unobserved home attributes. Eliminating moral hazard by forcing all renters to pay their own bill reduces energy consumption by 25% due to renters turning down the heat (21%) and choosing smaller units (4%). Moral hazard in residential energy contracts costs the United States $836 million per year in welfare losses including $246 million from carbon emissions.