Robustness of future atmospheric circulation changes over the EURO-CORDEX domain

被引:10
|
作者
Ozturk, Tugba [1 ,2 ,3 ]
Matte, Dominic [1 ,3 ]
Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg [1 ,3 ,4 ]
机构
[1] Univ Copenhagen, Niels Bohr Inst, Phys Ice Climate & Earth, Copenhagen, Denmark
[2] Isik Univ, Fac Arts & Sci, Dept Phys, TR-34980 Istanbul, Turkey
[3] Danish Meteorol Inst, Copenhagen, Denmark
[4] Norwegian Res Ctr, Bjerknes Ctr Climate Res, NORCE, Bergen, Norway
基金
欧盟地平线“2020”;
关键词
Atmospheric circulation; Climate change; EURO-CORDEX; Regional climate modeling; CLIMATE-CHANGE PROJECTIONS; CHANGE SIGNALS; CMIP5; MODELS; LAPSE-RATE; PATTERNS; UNCERTAINTIES; SIMULATIONS; VARIABILITY;
D O I
10.1007/s00382-021-06069-0
中图分类号
P4 [大气科学(气象学)];
学科分类号
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要
European climate is associated with variability and changes in the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation. In this study, we aim to investigate potential future change in circulation over Europe by using the EURO-CORDEX regional climate projections at 0.11 degrees grid mesh. In particular, we analyze future change in 500-hPa geopotential height (Gph), 500-hPa wind speed and mean sea level pressure (MSLP) addressing different warming levels of 1 degrees C, 2 degrees C and 3 degrees C, respectively. Simple scaling with the global mean temperature change is applied to the regional climate projections for monthly mean 500-hPa Gph and 500-hPa wind speed. Results from the ensemble mean of individual models show a robust increase in 500-hPa Gph and MSLP in winter over Mediterranean and Central Europe, indicating an intensification of anticyclonic circulation. This circulation change emerges robustly in most simulations within the coming decade. There are also enhanced westerlies which transport warm and moist air to the Mediterranean and Central Europe in winter and spring. It is also clear that, models showing different responses to circulation depend very much on the global climate model ensemble member in which they are nested. For all seasons, particularly autumn, the ensemble mean is much more correlated with the end of the century than most of the individual models. In general, the emergence of a scaled pattern appears rather quickly.
引用
收藏
页码:1799 / 1814
页数:16
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