Towards more meaningful scenarios of biodiversity responses to land-use change in Central Asia

We here respond to Nunez et al. (Reg Environ Chang 20:39, 2020), recently published inRegional Environmental Change. Nunez et al. project biodiversity responses to land-use and climate change in Central Asia. Their projections are based on scenarios of changing socio-economic and environmental conditions for the years 2040, 2070, and 2100. We suggest that the predicted magnitude of biodiversity loss might be biased high, due to four shortfalls in the data used and the methods employed. These are (i) the use of an inadequate measure of "biodiversity intactness," (ii) a failure to acknowledge for large spatial variation in land-use trends across the five considered Central Asian countries, (iii) the assumption of a strictly linear, negative relationship between livestock grazing intensity and the abundance of animals and plants, and (iv) the extrapolation of grazing-related biodiversity responses into areas of cropland. We conclude that future scenarios of biodiversity response to regional environmental change in Central Asia will benefit from using regional, not global, spatial data on livestock distribution and land-use patterns. The use of extra-regional data on the relationships between biodiversity and land-use or climate should be avoided.