Understanding the population genetic structure of Gleditsia triacanthos L.: seed dispersal and variation in female reproductive success

Fine-scale genetic structuring is influenced by a variety of ecological factors and can directly affect the evolutionary dynamics of plant populations by influencing effective population size and patterns of viability selection. In many plant species, genetic structuring within populations may result from highly localized patterns of seed dispersal around maternal plants or by the correlated dispersal and recruitment of siblings from the same fruit. This fine-scale genetic structuring may be enhanced if female parents vary significantly in their reproductive success. To test these hypotheses, we used genetic data from 17 allozyme loci and a maximum-likelihood, 'maternity-analysis' model to estimate individual female fertilities for maternal trees across a large number of naturally established seedlings and saplings in two populations of Gleditsin triacanthos L. (Leguminosae). Maximum-likelihood fertility estimates showed that the three highest fertility females accounted for 58% of the 313 progeny at the first site and 46% of the 651 progeny at the second site, whereas 18 of 35 and 16 of 34 females, respectively, had fertility estimates that did not exceed 1%. Additional analyses of the second site found individual female fertility to vary significantly both within and among juvenile age classes. Female fertility at the first site was weakly correlated with maternal tree size and spatial location relative to the open, old-field portions of the population, where the great majority of seedlings and saplings were growing, but no such correlations were found at the second site. Estimates of realized seed dispersal distances indicated that dispersal was highly localized at the first site, but was nearly random at the second site, possibly reflecting differences between the two sites in the behaviour of animal dispersers. The combined estimates of seed dispersal patterns and fertility variation are sufficient to explain previously described patterns of significant fine-scale spatial genetic structure in these two populations. In general, our results demonstrate that effective seed dispersal distributions may vary significantly from population to population of a species due to the unpredictable behaviour of secondary dispersers. Consequently, the effects of seed dispersal on realized fine-scale genetic structure may also be relatively unpredictable.