Evaluation of long-term steel demand in developing countries- Case study: Iran

The present study evaluates the application of top-down steel demand estimation in developing countries. The anticipated steel demand for the case of Iran is calculated by three methods, including the growth model (GM), the intensity of use hypothesis (IUH), and the fixed stock paradigm (FCP). GM shows a broad range of apparent steel demand based on the assumed growth factor. When the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita reaches 13,000 dollars per person (constant 2010 US$), the IUH method estimates the consumption peak consumption at around 500 kg steel per capita per year, which is being expected between 2040 and 2060 depending on the economic growth assumptions. Since fluctuations in the developing countries minimally affect the FCP, the steel demand based on this model is used to study the potential to satisfying the demand for steel in transportation sector from the scrap generated in the same sector. Iran faces a deficit of almost 8 million tons of steel scrap per year by 2025. Thus, the current examines the potentiality of supplying the required steel demand from the transport sector in two economic scenarios, including "regional rivalry" with restricted economic development and "fossil-fueled development" which focuses on the highest economic development using the temporal dis-tribution matrix (TDM) method. Both scenarios demonstrate that the steel consumption peak appears from 2030 to 2040. The maximum steel demand in the transportation sector is 25% lower in the regional rivalry scenario than the fossil-fueled development. Moreover, while this scenario provides a steady trend in steel production and consumption by 2050, the scrap of the transport sector may fulfill the demand for steel in this sector; compar-atively, this trend happens with 20 years delay in the fossil-fueled development scenario.