Forecasting total natural-gas consumption in Spain by using the stochastic Gompertz innovation diffusion model

被引：95

作者：

Gutiérrez, R ^{[1
]}

Nafidi, A ^{[1
]}

Sánchez, RG ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Granada, Fac Ciencias, Dept Stat & Operat Res, Granada 18071, Spain

来源：

APPLIED ENERGY | 2005年 / 80卷 / 02期

关键词：

stochastic Gompertz; logistic and lognormal models; natural-gas consumption; estimation and prediction;

D O I：

10.1016/j.apenergy.2004.03.012

中图分类号：

TE [石油、天然气工业]; TK [能源与动力工程];

学科分类号：

0807 ; 0820 ;

摘要：

The principal objective of the present study is to examine the possibilities of using a Gompertz-type innovation diffusion process as a stochastic growth model of natural-gas consumption in Spain, and to compare our results with those obtained, on the one hand, by stochastic logistic innovation modelling and, on the,other, by using a stochastic lognormal growth model based on a non-innovation diffusion process. Such a comparison is carried out taking into account the macroeconomic characteristics and natural-gas consumption patterns in Spain, both of which reflect the current expansive situation characterizing the Spanish economy. From the technical standpoint a contribution is also made to the theory of the stochastic Gompertz Innovation diffusion process (SGIDP), as applied to the case in question.(C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：115 / 124

页数：10

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