The influence of policy uncertainty on exchange rate forecasting

Using the economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index of Baker et al. (2016), we examine the influence of EPU on the characteristics of USD/JPY exchange rate forecasts. Our sample period, which spans two decades, incorporates a range of economic and political conditions for the USA and Japan. Consistent with higher EPU engendering a more complex information environment, that introduces noise into the forecasting process, our results clearly demonstrate that analyst forecast errors, and forecast dispersion, increase with EPU. The empirical findings are consistent across forecast horizons ranging from 1 month to 1 year. This has important implications for market participants who use exchange rate forecasts when making business and investment decisions.