Can we predict seasonal changes in high impact weather in the United States?

被引：21

作者：

Jung, Eunsil ^{[1
]}

Kirtman, Ben P. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Miami, Rosenstiel Sch Marine & Atmospher Sci, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149 USA

来源：

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2016年 / 11卷 / 07期

关键词：

CAPE; extreme weather; high impact weather; severe storm; Gulf of Mexico SST; ENSO; INTRA-AMERICA SEA; TORNADO OUTBREAKS; CLIMATIC ROLE; RAINFALL; PRECIPITATION; ENVIRONMENTS; OSCILLATION; VARIABILITY; REANALYSIS; PARAMETERS;

D O I：

10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074018

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

Severe convective storms cause catastrophic losses each year in the United States, suggesting that any predictive capability is of great societal benefit. While it is known that El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence high impact weather events, such as a tornado activity and severe storms, in the US during early spring, this study highlights that the influence of ENSO on US severe storm characteristics is weak during May-July. Instead, warm water in the Gulf of Mexico is a potential predictor for moist instability, which is an important factor in influencing the storm characteristics in the US during May-July.

引用

页数：8

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