Quantitative prediction of radiation belt electrons at geostationary orbit based on solar wind measurements

被引:215
|
作者
Li, XL
Temerin, M
Baker, DN
Reeves, GD
Larson, D
机构
[1] Univ Colorado, LASP, Boulder, CO 80303 USA
[2] Univ Calif Berkeley, Space Sci Lab, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA
[3] Univ Calif Los Alamos Natl Lab, Los Alamos, NM 87545 USA
关键词
D O I
10.1029/2000GL012681
中图分类号
P [天文学、地球科学];
学科分类号
07 ;
摘要
Solar wind measurements are used to predict the MeV electron radiation belt flux at the position of geostationary orbit. Using a model based on the standard radial diffusion equation, a prediction efficiency of 0.81 and a linear correlation of 0.90 were achieved for the years 1995-1996 for the logarithm of average daily flux. Model parameters based on the years 1995-1990 gave a prediction efficiency and a linear correlation for the years 1995-1999 of 0.59 and 0.80, respectively. The radial diffusion equation is solved after making the diffusion coefficient a function of the solar wind velocity and interplanetary magnetic field. The solar wind velocity is the most important parameter governing relativistic electron fluxes at geostationary orbit. The model also provides a physical explanation to several long standing mysteries of the variation of the MeV electrons.
引用
收藏
页码:1887 / 1890
页数:4
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