Identifying Factors Predicting Response to Endoscopic Management of Chronic Pancreatitis Secondary to Pancreas Divisum

Introduction Appropriately selecting patients with chronic pancreatitis associated with pancreas divisum (PD) for endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP)-based therapy versus surgery remains difficult. The objective of this study was to identify factors that predict success or failure of ERCP for treatment of chronic pancreatitis in PD. Methods Patients undergoing ERCP for a diagnosis of PD and pancreatitis between 2008 and 2016 were identified and grouped according to whether they required one or two ERCPs or three or more ERCPs. Groups were compared along demographic, diagnostic, laboratory, ERCP-related, and outcome variables. Results Patients requiring 1-2 ERCPs were less likely to have back pain on initial presentation (4 vs. 24%, p = 0.02) and less likely to have a dilated bile duct on imaging prior to their first ERCP (8 vs. 30%, p = 0.04) than those requiring 3+ ERCPs. Patients requiring 1-2 ERCPs were also less likely to eventually require operative intervention for treatment of their chronic pancreatitis than those requiring 3+ ERCPs (24 vs. 44%, p = 0.047). On multivariable analysis, a dilated bile duct (odds ratio (OR) = 6.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.01-36.0, p = 0.048) was independently associated with requiring 3+ ERCPs. Back pain (OR = 6.3, 95% CI = 0.73-54.2, p = 0.09) trended toward but did not reach statistical significance for being independently associated with requiring 3+ ERCPs. Conclusions The success of endoscopic treatment of chronic pancreatitis in patients with PD is dependent on proper patient selection. Patients with a dilated bile duct and back pain upon presentation may not respond well to endoscopic treatment alone and are more likely to eventually require operative intervention. Consideration should be given to early operative intervention in these patients.