Urban form, land use, and cover change and their impact on carbon emissions in the Monterrey Metropolitan area, Mexico

The process of rapid and uncontrolled urbanization has a strong relation with growing carbon emissions. This study analyses the urban expansion of the Monterrey Metropolitan Area (MMA) Mexico from 1990 to 2019 using satellite imagery and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to determine its relation to carbon emission. The analysis considers as variables: population data, urban expansion, gross domestic product, motor vehicle inventory, vegetation displacement, and energy usage from residential and commercial sectors as key variables to relate CO2 sink loss and CO2 emissions per period. Results show that MMA increased 2.6 times its size from 30,761 to 80,962 ha. It is estimated that 28,393 ha of vegetation was removed including scrubs, grassland, forest, and agricultural land with a potential of absorption of 373,900 T CO2 per year. In terms of CO2 emissions, the average per urban block in 2015 was 258 TCO2. This investigation intents to establish an historical baseline of carbon emissions for the Mexican context due to urban land change and rapid urbanization by having a consistent comparison in intervals of five years considering the variables mentioned above and identify the magnitude of association with the Pearson's statistical test. It also gives the different research lines that will serve to complement the study to achieve a complete urban carbon budget for Mexican cities by using information that is yearly available that can guide future environmental policy and complement Local Urban Development Plans.