Simulation of vegetation dynamics in Himalaya using dynamic global vegetation model

In order to understand the possible vegetation dynamics in the event of climate change for the Himachal Pradesh part of Western Himalaya, vegetation and its LAI and biomass were simulated using Spatially Explicit Individual based Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (SEIB DGVM). The study used climate data (global reanalysis by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) to generate mean annual climate trends to synthesize expected vegetation. The vegetation transects selected in Himachal Pradesh represent a biogeographic transition covering temperate-subtropical regime. In the present study, an attempt was made to simulate vegetation in two configurations across the study area as follows: (i) contiguous sites (40 grids of 10 km x 10 km) at alpine and temperate transitions, and (ii) discrete sites randomly selected (22 grids of 10 km x 10 km) covering a range of vegetation types. Simulations were carried out for 70 years time period (based on annual mean climate data for 100 years). In comparison to the earlier predictions made by several vegetation models, the SEIB model produced biomes which are in agreement with overall existing patterns available in the region. The SEIB model also produced leaf area index and biomass for each plant functional type and biome for each grid in the study area.