Epidemiology of type 1 (insulin-dependent) diabetes mellitus: public health implications in the Middle East

Recent estimates suggest that more than 100 000 inhabitants in the Middle East suffer from type I diabetes and that about 6000 subjects in the region develop the disease each year. This paper illustrates how epidemiological principles and methods may assist in a rational assessment of the public health impact of type 1 diabetes in the Middle East. Making a series of assumptions, it is estimated that the future prevalence of type 1 diabetes in the region will increase slightly, but that the increase may be more pronounced if the disease incidence is increasing and the prognosis improved. It is recommended that more valid information is established on the basic epidemiological features of type 1 diabetes in the Middle East, as this will provide the basis of more rational planning of the current and future diabetes healthcare in the region.