Long-Term Development Prospects of Russia's Wind Energy in the Conditions of Expected Climate Changes

The climatic effect on the operation of wind power plants in Russia is analyzed. Based on the global experience of wind farms' operation, a quantitative assessment of the sensitivity of electric power generation by modern wind turbines to wind speed variation is carried out. Using the ensemble approach, predictive estimates of changes in the wind fields in Russia are obtained for the 21st century using the results of general atmospheric circulation models participating in the international project CMIP5 (Coupled Multimodel Intercomparison Project Phase 5). The validity of the findings is ensured by the validation procedure, including a comparison of different versions of the multimodel ensemble with data reanalysis. The predictive estimate obtained for the climatic scenario developed at the National Research University Moscow Power Engineering Institute (NRU MPEI) is compared with generally accepted climatic scenarios based on the use of so-called greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways. It is shown that the choice of the scenario has a significant impact on the forecast results. However, the data of the calculations distinguish several features of the wind regime in the 21st century, which are almost independent of the selected scenario or ensemble composition and, apparently, can be considered reliable. In particular, it is found that there is a possibility of some decrease in average wind speeds across Russia during the 21st century. However, in Primorskiy Kray, the expected climate change will lead to the formation of a zone with a steady increase in its speed. Changes in the technical wind potential in the regions of the country where the construction of wind turbines is planned will amount to from -15 to -20% for the subarctic regions and from +5 to +10% for Primorskiy Kray by the end of the 21st century. It follows from the calculations that the currently observed climate warming, in all likelihood, does not pose a serious threat to the development of wind energy in Russia. The modern and planned location of wind farms even makes it possible to expect some growth in their production rate in the first half of the 21st century. At the same time, the prospect of long-term changes in the wind regime should certainly be taken into account when selecting the wind farm location and predesign analysis as part of the measures aimed at adapting to climate changes.