Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak

被引：1036

作者：

Zhao, Shi ^{[1
,2
]}

Lin, Qianyin ^{[3
]}

Ran, Jinjun ^{[4
]}

Musa, Salihu S. ^{[5
]}

Yang, Guangpu ^{[6
,7
,8
]}

Wang, Weiming ^{[9
]}

Lou, Yijun ^{[5
]}

Gao, Daozhou ^{[10
]}

Yang, Lin ^{[11
]}

He, Daihai ^{[5
]}

Wang, Maggie H. ^{[1
,2
]}

机构：

[1] Chinese Univ Hong Kong, JC Sch Publ Hlth & Primary Care, Hong Kong, Peoples R China

[2] Chinese Univ Hong Kong, Shenzhen Res Inst, Shenzhen, Peoples R China

[3] Univ Michigan, Michigan Inst Data Sci, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA

[4] Univ Hong Kong, Li Ka Shing Fac Med, Sch Publ Hlth, Hong Kong, Peoples R China

[5] Hong Kong Polytech Univ, Dept Appl Math, Hong Kong, Peoples R China

[6] Chinese Univ Hong Kong, Dept Orthopaed & Traumatol, Hong Kong, Peoples R China

[7] Chinese Univ Hong Kong, SH Ho Scoliosis Res Lab, Joint Scoliosis Res Ctr, Hong Kong, Peoples R China

[8] Nanjing Univ, Hong Kong, Peoples R China

[9] Huaiyin Normal Univ, Sch Math & Stat, Huaian, Peoples R China

[10] Shanghai Normal Univ, Dept Math, Shanghai, Peoples R China

[11] Hong Kong Polytech Univ, Sch Nursing, Hong Kong, Peoples R China

来源：

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES | 2020年 / 92卷

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

Basic reproduction number; Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV); ACUTE RESPIRATORY SYNDROME; SPREAD;

D O I：

10.1016/j.ijid.2020.01.050

中图分类号：

R51 [传染病];

学科分类号：

100401 ;

摘要：

Backgrounds: An ongoing outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia hit a major city in China, Wuhan, December 2019 and subsequently reached other provinces/regions of China and other countries. We present estimates of the basic reproduction number, R-0, of 2019-nCoV in the early phase of the outbreak. Methods: Accounting for the impact of the variations in disease reporting rate, we modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases time series, in mainland China from January 10 to January 24, 2020, through the exponential growth. With the estimated intrinsic growth rate (gamma), we estimated R-0 by using the serial intervals (SI) of two other well-known coronavirus diseases, MERS and SARS, as approximations for the true unknown SI. Findings: The early outbreak data largely follows the exponential growth. We estimated that the mean R-0 ranges from 2.24 (95%CI: 1.96-2.55) to 3.58 (95%CI: 2.89-4.39) associated with 8-fold to 2-fold increase in the reporting rate. We demonstrated that changes in reporting rate substantially affect estimates of R-0. Conclusion: The mean estimate of R-0 for the 2019-nCoV ranges from 2.24 to 3.58, and is significantly larger than 1. Our findings indicate the potential of 2019-nCoV to cause outbreaks. (C) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases.

引用

页码：214 / 217

页数：4