Establishment and evaluation of a nomogram prediction model for recurrence risk of atrial fibrillation patients after radiofrequency ablation

Objective: To explore the risk factors for recurrence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in patients after radiofrequency ablation and construction of a targeted nomogram prediction model. Methods: A prospective cohort study design was used to select 312 patients who were separated into two groups; a recurrence group (n = 79) and a non-recurrence group (n = 233) with or without AF, who underwent radiofrequency ablation for the first time between January 2017 and December 2017, with a completed a 12-month follow-up after surgery. The recurrence of AF within 12 months after follow-up was recorded. The nomogram prediction model was established. The original data were resampled using the Bootstrap method. The recurrence risk after resampling was predicted using a nomogram model. The calibration curve and ROC curve of the nomogram model were established. The predicted calibration degree and discrimination degree of the nomogram model were evaluated with the Hosmer-Lemeshow deviation test and area under the curve. Results: The 12-month follow-up showed that a total of 79 patients (25.32%) had recurrence of AF. The type of AF, sex, gender, disease course, left atrial anteroposterior diameter, left atrial volume, and cardiac function classification were independent risk factors for the recurrence of AF (P < 0.05). After the nomogram prediction model passed the Bootstrap self-sampling 1000 times, Hosmer-Lemeshow deviation test: chi(2) = 8.070, P = 0.427; the area under ROC curve was 0.852 (95% CI: 0.806-0.898), the sensitivity was 78.48%, and the specificity was 81.12%, suggesting that the nomogram model has better predictive calibration and discrimination. Conclusion: The recurrence rate in patients with AF after radiofrequency ablation is high. The nomogram model based on the risk factors of AF recurrence has high prediction accuracy and can be used to predict the recurrence risk of AF in patients after radiofrequency ablation.